The total combined market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies continues to fall to new yearly lows despite ongoing improvements to the fundamentals of the space.
What could be driving the prices of Bitcoin and other digital assets down in such a way?
Fundamentals Never Looked Better
From a fundamental perspective, the cryptocurrency space has never looked better.
Increased institutional options by the likes of Circle, Coinbase, and Blockchain, and the ICE recently announcing intentions to form the Bakkt platform with the likes of Starbucks and Microsoft by November 2018, are clearly positive developments. In fact, many in the cryptocurrency space were surprised that the latter project had not translated into a substantial price move to the upside.
That said, the overall market is still tanking. The likes of Ethereum, EOS, TRON, IOTA, and NEO are the worst hit of the top 15 projects. They’ve seen 24-hour drops of between 9 and 11.5% according to CoinMarketCap. Evidently market sentiment is not where it needs to be to see a reversal of the 2018 crypto bear market just yet.
One potential cause of the continued lack of positive sentiment is the decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to delay the most-anticipated of the many Bitcoin ETF proposals it has received this year.
The VanEck/SolidX application is thought by many to be the first ETF to receive approval. However, last week the regulators announced that they would be delaying their decision until September at the earliest. Leading up to the date of the delay, the overall market capitalisation of the industry was above $256 billion. However, since August 7, the overall figure has reduced by around $50 billion.
Although enthusiasm for a Bitcoin ETF is higher than it’s ever been, it still seems strange that the announcement would cause such a pronounced downturn. Many in the space had stated previously that the most likely outcome at this stage was for the SEC to delay the decision. A Bitcoin ETF is an entirely unknown entity at this point. It makes sense for one of planet’s largest regulators to take a cautious approach to its approval.
Price of Tokens Falling
Although the entire market is very much in the red, most of the bleeding is coming from the token side of the industry.
Those projects that are strictly for use as currencies (Bitcoin, Monero, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash, for example) are all faring much better than platforms such as Ethereum and EOS, which support tokens that are also some of the worst impacted.
Coupled with the strongest Bitcoin dominance percentage seen all year, these factors could be indicative of a general realisation that most digital tokens represent little but an idea at this point. The values seen at the tail end of last year were completely unsustainable for companies who are yet to launch a working product.
It’s understandable that positive sentiment is dying down for such token-based projects since the numbers of projects revealing failures to deliver on roadmaps or being outed as downright frauds is growing by the day.
Market Sentiment Needs Time to Recover
It’s almost certain that there isn’t a single reason behind the continued tanking of the cryptocurrency market.
The most realistic cause is that the market simply needs time to recover. A lot of inexperienced investors entered the space at the tail end of last year. Many were badly burned following the late-December downturn. In such a climate, new money is reluctant to enter into the market.
When markets get as overextended as they did during the 2017 bull run, they need time to cool off. Those who jumped on the bandwagon need to let their wounds heal. Only then can positive developments like those mentioned earlier start to excite the public once again.
The same pattern of a huge over-extension followed by months of slowly dwindling prices can be observed following the 2013 surge in cryptocurrency markets. However, positive developments continue. This means that when market sentiment does finally reverse, the infrastructure will be much better equipped to handle even higher highs for those projects that make it out of crypto winter alive.
Fast-Growing BiKi.com Secures Investments from Genesis and FBG Capital
12th June, Singapore, Singapore – Fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange BiKi.com has recently attracted yet another slew of investments, this time from influential blockchain investment institutions Genesis Capital and FBG Capital.
Crypto fund Genesis Capital’s purported mission of discovering and supporting early-stage projects with the most potential is particularly apt in the case of BiKi.com. In under a year, the infant exchange has managed to accumulate more than 1.2 million registered users and more than 100K daily active users, not to mention its impressive climb to top 15 rankings on the rungs of the global crypto exchange ladder. Genesis’ current investment portfolio includes esteemed projects the likes of Tron, Quarkchain, Egretia and Arcblock, to name a few. In total, Genesis has invested 2 million in BiKi.com, the first million on 27th May followed by another million on 29th May.
Previously backed by Silicon Valley VC Sequoia, digital asset management firm FBG Capital, whose past investment projects have increased 10 to 100 times, has also set its sights on BiKi. FBG has long gained industry respect for discovering and investing in projects such as 0x, Zilliqa, OmiseGO, IOST and Aelf, years before they became successful. FBG’s strategic investment in BiKi will see multi-level co-operation between the two parties which includes FBG providing professional and market resources that will aid BiKi in increasing its market share and implementing trading platform improvements. The enthusiasm of FBG CEO Zhou Shouji, who has been featured on the cover of Forbes, has certainly improved branding for the young exchange, with his friendly recommendations of BiKi skyrocketing the value of its token by 300% in one week.
“We are extremely honored that FBG has such great faith in Biki,” said Ethan Ng, CEO of BiKi.com SEA. “FBG has continually shown amazing foresight in their investments and this partnership is a clear signal that FBG believes BiKi is going places; especially now, with their support, we will no doubt achieve even better project quality, services and branding.”
Not Just Another Exchange
Notably, BiKi.com’s strategy of listing not only the top 100 most popular tokens but also emerging high quality projects on the exchange has stood it in good stead. With the tendency of investors to flock to trending projects, using users to attract other users is a core competitive advantage for exchanges.
Its focus on conversion marketing during a bear market in late 2018 and early 2019 using unconventional user-growth tactics has also proven to be effective. By converting a non-crypto audience into new exchange users through Chinese e-commerce platforms, BiKi was able to generate daily real transaction volumes of 20 to 100 million USDT, with its net profit in May reaching RMB 10 million, approximately USD 1.5 million.
Targeting foreign market expansion within a competitive timeline, building community partners worldwide as well as providing substantial support for listed projects also sets BiKi apart from its peers.
With corporate giants like Facebook, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan coming out with digital currencies, coupled with mainstream media’s constant coverage, cryptocurrencies have finally gained mass acceptance. Should market conditions continue to improve, a high influx of new investors entering the market can be expected, with exchanges being the greatest benefactors of this new wave of users.
As Huobi co-founder and BiKi.com’s largest investor Jun Du has gushed, “This year’s ‘miracle’ should belong to BiKi.” With quality digital assets and strong consumer demand going hand-in-hand, BiKi will likely emerge a dark horse when the bull market breaks out again.
Headquartered in Singapore, BiKi.com is a global cryptocurrency exchange that provides a digital assets platform for trading more than 100 cryptocurrencies and 127 trading pairs. Since beginning operations in Aug 2018, BiKi.com is considered one of the fastest-growing cryptocurrency exchanges in the world with an accumulated 1.2 million registered users and 100,000 daily active users, ranking within the top 15 exchanges globally.
Bitcoin is the ‘King of the Asset Class Hill’ in 2019
Bitcoin’s price rose more than 60 percent in May — the highest monthly return in over a year and a half. This means the world’s most popular cryptocurrency has performed better than almost any global asset in 2019. Boutique analysis firm Delphi Digital even labeled Bitcoin the “King of the Asset Class Hill” in its latest market commentary, after it posted four consecutive months of solid returns.
“The acceleration in BTC’s performance comes at a time when conventional risk assets, notably global equity markets, continue to see selling pressure […],” said Delphi Digital. “May’s outperformance has been especially important given the broader weakness across many other asset classes.”
Investors flee risky assets, but Bitcoin remains unfazed
Delphi Digital explained that public equity markets are currently “riddled with concerns.” The New York Stock Exchange is one example of a public equity market.
Trade war disputes, stagnating earnings expectations, and waning sentiment for economic growth in the remainder of 2019 have convinced investors to flee riskier positions for “safe haven assets” like long-term US treasuries.
Still, according to the firm’s data, Bitcoin has absolutely crushed those assets this year. Its list includes the Japanese Yen, Gold, and WTI crude oil.
“Contrary to its recent history, Bitcoin has remained largely unaffected by the sell-off in risk assets, though expectations for market volatility are trending higher,” said its analysts. “It is still too early to claim victory yet, but BTC’s uncorrelated nature has so far proved true.”
Delphi Digital determined that even small Bitcoin allocations in “traditional” investment portfolios (60 percent stocks, 40 percent fixed income) over the past three years significantly boosted risk-adjusted returns.
This is understandable, considering this timeframe includes Bitcoin’s monstrous 2017 bull-run to $20,000.
“Just a 3-percent allocation (which we acknowledge is still a sizable position for most conservative investors) would have generated a compound annual growth rate of 12 percent over the last 36 months, without raising the portfolio‘s volatility or maximum drawdown by much,” said the firm.
‘Big Money’ Accumulates Bitcoin Driving Bull Market Return
Last time Bitcoin saw current price levels was on its way downwards in August 2018. But the landscape of Bitcoin supply holdings has shifted ever since the most recent bottom was met this past Christmas. The number of addresses holding between 1000 and 10K Bitcoins each has seen a steep rise with a whopping accumulation of 450,000 Bitcoins in less than 9-months.
Over 26% of circulating supply, $36Bn worth of Bitcoin, now sit in addresses that have a balance of 1000-10k BTC. In August 2018 when Bitcoin was also at $8000, these ‘Firm Size’ addresses held under 20% of the circulating supply showing a sharp accumulation of nearly 7% in less than a year.
With that said, a surge in the 1-10k Bitcoin address bracket in December 2018 was likely the result of Coinbase shifting approximately 5% of supply into new cold storage security facilities.
At the time, Coinbase moved 856,000 Bitcoins across 107 addresses. These now stand at 11% less with 760,000 Bitcoins in 96 addresses. Diar has excluded these Bitcoins from this analysis.
|| BOTTOM BUY-IN
The number of Bitcoins held by this ‘Firm’ size bracket, seeing as the minimum address now accounts for multi-millions, surged in December 2018 when the largest cryptocurrency met its most recent bottom of $3200. Since December 2018, in a short six month period, Bitcoin accumulation has seen over 1.2Mn added to this bracket, by and far the largest growth across all address groupings (see chart 1).
And while accounting for potential Coinbase-held coins brings the tally down, the 450k that has been added remains leaps and bounds of growth against every other segment.
|| BILLIONS ADDED
These addresses stand today at $6Bn more (excluding Coinbase coins) than the last time Bitcoin was at $8000 in August 2018. And these are not stale addresses or lost bitcoin as most have been active in the past three months.
Since the start of 2019, over 100K Bitcoins have found their way into this bracket. And while this only accounts for 40% of newly minted Bitcoins this year, there has been a 10% increase in the number of addresses. Whether or not these are multiple entities or for the sake of security management is, of course, an unknown.
But what is notable is the long-term trend that on-chain data shows since the start of the bear market in January 2018. Since then, 955k Bitcoins have been minted through inflation as a reward to miners. For the same period, firm size addresses have slurped up half the new market supply.
|| RETAIL STEADY
Retail size wallets between 0-100 Bitcoins have also seen a 126k increase in Bitcoins and a continuous upward trend to the number of addresses (Diar, 25 February). Overall, these addresses hold, as of date, 38% of Bitcoins circulating supply (see chart 4). Accounting for inflation, however, this segment remains fairly stable and unlikely the driving cause of recent price spikes.
|| SUPPLY SQUEEZE ON TRADING VENUES?
Bitcoins held by major addresses – mostly of which are exchanges – have seen an exodus of over 300K Bitcoins since the start of 2018. At peak, these addresses held 750,000 more Bitcoins than they do today, 21% of the total circulating supply versus 16% today (see chart 4).
Had Coinbase wallets before its security migration fell in these higher brackets, then it would effectively be a wash despite seeing nearly 100k Bitcoins out of their cold storage.
But with trading volumes hitting new highs this year, recent surges in prices could have added to the effect in part been due to the now restrained supply on exchanges as far as on-chain data can tell (Diar, 21 May).
Japan Eyes Cryptocurrencies as it Toughens Money Laundering Laws
Last year authorities arrived at cryptocurrency exchange operator FSHO’s one-room office in a Yokohama business district for an on-site inspection. They discovered multiple suspicious transactions.
The company had overlooked numerous transactions over a short period of time in which the same client converted large amounts of digital currency to cash, a person familiar with the investigation said. Japan’s financial regulator, fearing that the funds had found their way to illicit actors, later declined the operator’s bid to become a registered exchange, the first such rejection.
The Financial Services Agency is stepping up its countermeasures for money laundering, and that includes taking a hard look at cryptocurrency exchanges. Japan’s anti-money laundering regime will undergo an inspection by an intergovernmental body this fall, and the FSA is eager for a good review.
The issue is also expected to be taken up at the G-20 meeting this summer. As the chair of this year’s gathering, Japan does not want to fall behind other countries in implementing policies.
To ensure the country’s financial security framework is in working order, the FSA is taking aim at cryptocurrency exchanges that do not adequately confirm their clients’ identities or offer anonymous transactions, as well as at banks and other traditional financial institutions.
It has been 10 years since the birth of bitcoin, and during that time the digital currency’s value has fluctuated wildly. Security remains an issue. Last May hackers stole $41 million worth of bitcoin from Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges.
Now there are more than 2,000 cryptocurrencies. They have drawn acclaim as a next generation payments solution, thanks to the conveniences they offer, like remitting money across national borders without going through banks. But that ease of use means they can be used for illegal transactions and money laundering.
A panel of experts in March reported to the U.N. Security Council that North Korea used cyberattacks and blockchain technology to steal digital currency. They estimated that North Korea has successfully attacked Asian cryptocurrency exchanges at least five times, acquiring $571 million.
“Cyberattacks involving cryptocurrencies provide the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea with more ways to evade sanctions given that they are harder to trace, can be laundered many times and are independent from government regulation,” the panel wrote.
In April 2017, Japan became the first to introduce a registration system for cryptocurrency exchanges. Until then, there were no real rules governing exchange operators, but the government started putting regulations in place to combat money laundering.
Such countermeasures are a topic of global discussion. They are now under the purview of the Financial Action Task Force, a product of the 1989 G-7 summit. The intergovernmental FATF has a strong influence on the development of regulations and practical implementation of money laundering measures.
In October, its rules were changed such that money laundering regulations could also be applied to cryptocurrency exchanges. The change also called on member countries to develop licensing and registration systems, and to put in place measures that allow for monitoring.
The FATF’s investigatory body will come to Japan this fall to assess domestic money laundering laws. It is expected to look at cryptocurrency exchange operators, banks and credit unions, according to a senior FSA official, so there is a pressing need to develop countermeasures.
Exchange companies are being asked to clearly explain what steps they are taking to prevent money laundering.
In Japan, exchanges came under the microscope after the theft of about 58 billion yen worth of cryptocurrency from Coincheck in January 2018. In June of that year the FSA took the unusual step of issuing business improvement orders to six other operators, citing insufficient money laundering countermeasures and other practices. In some cases, identity verification was insufficient, and clients were allowed to register post office boxes as personal addresses.
Japan has, at times, struggled to deal with money laundering. In its 2008 report, the FATF gave Japan its lowest possible rating in regard to financial institutions identifying their clients. In its statement, the group singled out Japan as having an insufficient legal framework.
For the FSA, the inspection this fall is a chance to expunge that blemish. “One company’s problem can’t help but affect the whole country’s evaluation,” said an official. “We’ll continue with the on-site inspections, and we’ll make sure everything is sound.”
Ahead of the inspection, the G-20 next month is expected to discuss international regulations for cryptocurrencies. Japan will chair the G-20 summit in Osaka. The topic of initial coin offerings, a form of fundraising using digital currencies, could come up. While China and South Korea have banned ICOs, Japan continues to regulate the schemes.
Already, cryptocurrency exchanges are relocating to countries with looser regulations, like the Mediterranean country of Malta.
As the global cryptocurrency playing field shifts, the need for international coordination will only grow.
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Huobi Makes Bitcoin Pizza Day Huobi Prime Day With Up To 50% Off Bitcoin & Prime 3 Launch
Nearly nine years ago on May 22, 2010, Florida-based programmer Laszlo Hanyecz made crypto history when he managed to exchange 10,000 Bitcoins with another early Bitcoin enthusiast for two pizzas. With BTC worth $0.003 at the time, those pizzas cost him about USD $30. Under today’s prices, they would be worth well over USD $70 million and Bitcoin Pizza Day has become a well-loved crypto community tradition.
Huobi Global will honor that tradition on May 22 with a range of initiatives, including the launch of Reserve Protocol’s Reserve Rights Token (RSR) through our premium coin launch platform Huobi Prime. We will also be hosting a special sale of Bitcoin featuring prices discounted up to 50% off market value*.
“Bitcoin Pizza Day is Prime Day this year,” said Huobi Global CEO Livio Weng on the BTC promotion. “Things started as a joke that we were going to list Bitcoin through Prime but then I kept thinking, what better way to mark Prime 3 and celebrate Pizza Day? Let’s actually do this!”
Pizza Day Promotions:
Huobi will be providing 1.5 million* USDT-worth of Bitcoin to users in two special trading rounds on May 22, starting at 18:00 (GMT +8). In the first round, 20% of the total Bitcoin supply will be offered to users at 50% off market price*. In the second, the remaining 80% of Bitcoin will be provided to users at 12% off market price*. While the first round will be first-come, first-served, in the second, all qualified orders will be partially filled via adjusted system matching. “To put it another way, all qualified users in our second round will get at least some of the BTC they seek,” said Ross Zhang, Head of Marketing for Huobi Group. “I do want to warn people, though – we expect demand to be very high, so you’ll have to be lucky and quick in the first round. Also, anyone who goes into the second expecting his or her entire order to be filled may need to adjust their expectations.”
There are several ways to qualify. Users who hold at least 1000 Huobi Token (HT), our native token on Huobi Global, over the seven days leading up to launch (May 15 to May 21) are eligible to participate. Users who have a daily average holding of 20000 or more USDT or the same value of in BTC, NEW, TT, or TOP can also take part.
Why Is Bitcoin Surging?
Bitcoin has more than doubled this year. That simple fact has enthusiasts cheering on its resurgence, even if no one can quite pinpoint why it’s rallying.
Indexica, an alternative data provider, built a custom index based on natural language processing of thousands of textual documents to try and explain Bitcoin’s 28% run-up throughout the month of April. What they found pointed to a coming of age for the cryptocurrency.
Their findings showed three main drivers: a more complex conversation surrounding Bitcoin, fewer concerns about fraud and a shift in the tense of how Bitcoin is talked about from the past to the future.
The higher quality discourse suggests that more academics and financial professionals are discussing the cryptocurrency and that institutions may be taking it more seriously as an asset class. Fidelity Investments will buy and sell the world’s most popular digital asset for institutional customers soon, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Indexica’s study also showed that the tense of the conversation changed last month. Futurity, a measure showing that discussions tend to talk about what’s going to happen as opposed what has already transpired, showed up as a major driver for the coin’s price last month for the first time on record.
Zak Selbert, chief executive officer at Indexica, says the futurity of Bitcoin is systematic and a characteristic often seen among stocks. Futurity also tends to indicate positive price moves in the future.
“Think about it, executives will speak of good things they expect to happen on conference calls before they happen,” said Selbert. “They only mention mistakes afterwards.”
Price Analysis: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Binance, Stellar, TRON
Though cryptocurrencies are not strongly correlated to any asset class, the sharp fall in U.S. stock prices due to the escalation of trade war between the U.S. and China is providing an added impetus to crypto prices. While many traders milk the volatility of the crypto markets, about 12% of the crypto traders stay invested for the long term, according to a survey by HBUS.
While the stage is being prepared for institutional investors, mass adoption of cryptocurrencies is another important factor for long term growth of the asset class. Two companies, Starbucks and Facebook, have been in the news for the past few months on rumors of their involvement with cryptocurrencies.
While Starbucks is expected to start accepting Bitcoins at its retail stores, Facebook is likely to launch its own cryptocurrency named FB Coin, which is a stablecoin. Though the actual details are sketchy, these companies have massive reach among retail customers and their arrival will boost crypto adoption among the masses.
These fundamental developments are pointing towards the growth of the asset class. However, the question remains on which cryptocurrency will be the major beneficiary. Michael Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, believes that Bitcoin will only be treated as a store of value and other networks will grab attention with their use cases.
Bitcoin (BTC) is skyrocketing. The pace of the rally has surprised us. It has scaled above the overhead resistances with ease. This shows that the bulls have continued to buy on every rise without waiting for a dip. While this is a positive sign, the pace of rise is unlikely to sustain for long. Traders can trail the stops on the remaining long positions at $7,100.
The next level to watch on the upside is $8,496.53 and above it, the move can extend to $10,000. It is difficult to predict where the rally will stall. Therefore, traders can keep trailing the stop loss to protect their paper profits. The next pullback is likely to be sharp and deep.
Both the moving averages are trending up, which shows that the bulls are firmly in the driver’s seat, but the RSI has risen deep into overbought territory. This suggests that the traders are chasing the price higher and the pair is vulnerable to a pullback. On the downside, the BTC/USD pair might find support at $6480.54 and below it at the 20-day EMA. This will indicate strength and signal the end of the bear phase.
On the other hand, if the bears sink the digital currency back below $5,900, it will dampen sentiment.
Ethereum (ETH) soared on May 11 to above $200, but the bulls could not sustain the rally. After that, the attempt by the bears to plummet the price back into the triangle failed. Currently, the bulls are again trying to sustain above the $200.
Both the moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is near the overbought zone. This shows that the bulls are in command, but we are yet to see a sustained up-move. The targets on the upside are $225 and above it $256.
However, if the ETH/USD pair picks up momentum, it can surprise to the upside and rally to $300. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the pair back into the triangle. For now, the stop loss on the existing long positions can be kept at $160.
Though Ripple (XRP) is still in the range, it is pointing to a breakout. If the bulls succeed in pushing the price above $0.33108, it can rally to $0.37835. The digital currency is likely to pick up momentum above this level. We will wait for the price to sustain above $0.33108 before proposing a trade in it.
The levels to watch on the upside are $0.45 and above it $0.60, with a minor resistance at $0.5650. Contrary to our expectation, if the XRP/USD pair fails to break out and sustain above $0.33108, it will remain range bound between $0.27795 and $0.33108. The trend will turn negative on a breakdown below $0.27795.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) soared above the range on May 11, which is a positive sign. We like the way the bulls held the price above the previous resistance-turned-support of $335.62. The 20-day EMA has turned up and the RSI has reached the overbought zone. This shows that the bulls are in command.
The BCH/USD pair can now rally to $424 and above it to $500. Our bullish assumption will be negated if the pair breaks down of the support at $335.62 and re-enters the range. The trend will weaken if the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA. In such a case, the price will remain range bound between $255 and $335.62.
Litecoin (LTC) surged above $91 on May 11 and 12 but it could not close above the resistance level. The pullback from this level was shallow as the digital currency found support at $83.653. The bulls are again trying to scale above the overhead resistance at $91.
A breakout and close will complete the bullish cup and handle pattern. This has a target objective of $158.91. Traders can buy the LTC/USD pair on a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $91. The stop loss can be kept at $70, which can be raised later. Please keep the position size about 50% of usual as the risk of a pullback is high.
Contrary to our assumption, if the pair turns down from $91 and plummets below the 20-day EMA, it can drop to $70. The pair will turn negative on a breakdown of $66.470.
EOS turned around from just above $4.4930. The bulls quickly propelled the price above the uptrend line and the 20-day EMA. There is a minor resistance at $5.50, above which a move to $6.0726 is probable.
On the contrary, if the EOS/USD pair fails to sustain above the overhead resistance at $5.50, it can remain range bound between $4.4930 and $5.50 for a few days. It will turn negative on a breakdown and close below $4.4930. We do not find a buy setup that gives us a good risk to reward ratio at current levels, hence, we do not recommend a trade in it.
Binance Coin (BNB) reversed direction from just below $18 and rallied above both moving averages and the uptrend line of the wedge. This is a bullish sign as it invalidates the breakdown of the wedge.
The bulls are attempting to push the price towards lifetime highs. A breakout and close above the lifetime highs will be a bullish sign. We might suggest a long position if the price sustains such highs.
Conversely, if the bulls fail to break out of the new highs, the BNB/USD pair might remain range bound for a few days. The trend will turn bearish on a breakdown of $17.50.
Stellar (XLM) is trying to pull back, but is facing resistance at the moving averages. If the bulls push the price above the 50-day SMA, it can move up to $0.12039489. The long-term downtrend line is located at this level. We expect the bears to offer a stiff resistance at this point.
On the other hand, if the XLM/USD pair fails to breakout of the moving averages, it can slump to $0.08641170 and below it to $0.080. Both the moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which suggests a consolidation in the short term. As the price is still quoting below both the moving averages, we will wait for it to form a reliable buy setup before proposing a trade in it.
Cardano (ADA) reversed direction from $0.057898 on May 10 and broke out of the downtrend line on May 11. It has been facing resistance at $0.080 for the past two days. Both the moving averages are flat and the RSI is just above the midpoint. This suggests a range formation in the short term.
If the ADA/USD pair sustains above the 50-day SMA, it can move up to $0.094256. This might act as a stiff resistance but, if scaled, it will complete a reversal pattern that has a target objective of $0.161275. Traders can buy a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $0.094256. We will propose a stop loss when the trade triggers.
Our assumption will be invalidated if the pair turns down and breaks below $0.057898. In such a case, a drop to $0.040 is probable.
Tron (TRX) remains stuck in the $0.02094452–$0.02815521 range. It has not participated in the current recovery, which is a negative sign. Both the moving averages are flat and the RSI has been hovering below 54, which suggests that the bears have a slight advantage.
As the TRX/USD pair has been range-bound for the past few months, a breakout of it will signal the start of a new uptrend. Therefore, we maintain our buy recommendation given in an earlier analysis. However, if the pair turns down and breaks below $0.02094452, it can plunge to the critical support of $0.0183.
Analytics: BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC and XMR
Bitcoin has been the main attraction in the past week, as it has scaled every stiff hurdle with ease. The rally has helped its market dominance hit levels not seen since December 2017. After a long time, the traders have focused on the positives and have disregarded the negative news. This shows that the sentiment is bullish.
A rally being led by the largest cryptocurrency is a bullish sign. Some believe that the upward move is a result of increased activity by institutional players. While we are surprised by the pace of the rally, we believe that this is not sustainable and a repeat of the previous bull market is unlikely. Bitcoin will soon enter a consolidation or a minor correction that can be used as a buying opportunity.
The recovery in cryptocurrencies has enabled projects to source funds easily. Bitfinex has received hard and soft commitments for its $1 billion initial native exchange token offering. Similarly, blockchain equity loan platform Figure, backed by Morgan Creek has sealed a $1 billion “uncommitted” financing facility via blockchain.
Will bitcoin pull the altcoins higher, or will the altcoin rally indicate that the retail crowd is jumping in and a short-term top is close by? Let us see what the charts of the top five performers of the past seven days project.
Bitcoin (BTC), with its scintillating run, is back in the limelight. One of the world’s top cryptocurrency exchanges, Binance, was hacked and 7,070 in bitcoin was stolen from its hot wallets. However, the hack did not rattle the markets as it continued its uptrend after a brief pause. When markets do not correct on negative news, it is a bullish sign.
Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz expects the lifetime highs to be scaled within the next 18 months. Financial advisory firm Canaccord Genuity also arrived at a similar conclusion based on their studies: they expect bitcoin to hit $20,000 by 2021. Tim Draper, however, is even more bullish, as he expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by 2023.
However, we suggest traders not to get carried away by these lofty targets. Let’s see what the charts project.
The BTC/USD pair is easily breaking out of the overhead resistances. We were expecting the recovery to pause in the zone of $6,000 to $6,480.54, but the pair easily crossed this zone. It has a minor resistance at $6,850, above which the rally can extend to $7,500 and if that level is also crossed, it can move up to $8,500.
However, the sharp rally has pushed the RSI on the weekly charts into the overbought zone for the first time since early January 2018. This shows that the rally has been persistent and strong.
Any dip will find support at $5,900 and below it at $4,900 levels. The next fall might form a higher base and be the last opportunity to buy before the cryptocurrency enters a sustained long-term uptrend.
While ether (ETH) volumes on decentralized applications (DApps) hit a new high, the number of new DApps deployed on-chain is at a low, close to 2017 levels, according to crypto analytics firm Diar. Over the next 12 months, the Ethereum Foundation plans to spend $30 million for various projects across the ecosystem. Helped with a donation of $1,000 Ether each by Joseph Lubin, Vitalik Buterin, ConsenSys and the Ethereum Foundation, the Moloch decentralized autonomous organization’s total funds have reached $1 million.
An unidentified official of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said that an Ether-based futures product might receive the approval of the regulator if it meets the requirements. Can these bullish developments propel the cryptocurrency higher?
After defending the breakout level of $167.20 for the past four weeks, the bulls are attempting to resume the uptrend. This is a positive sign. The breakout of the ascending triangle can push the price to $256.08, above which a move to $300 is probable.
The ETH/USD pair might face some resistance at the 50-week SMA, but we expect this level to be scaled.
Our bullish view will be negated if the bears reverse direction from the current levels and sink the pair back into the triangle. Such a move will invalidate the breakout of the bullish pattern, which is a bearish sign.
More than 50% of transactions in bitcoin cash (BCH) are being generated from a single account. These are small transactions in value but are being done on a regular basis — about three to four transactions per second. Some believe that this is being done to make the network look busier than it is, while others speculate that it is being done for a test. Nevertheless, all eyes will be on the forthcoming upgrade of the network on May 15.
The BTC/USD pair has been trading in a tight range of $255 to $335.62 for the past four weeks. The attempt by the bears to breakdown from this range failed, as the bulls purchased the dip to the 20-week EMA.
Currently, the bulls are attempting to ascend the overhead resistance zone of $335.62 to $363.3. If this zone is scaled, the pair is likely to move up to $600. Though there is a minor resistance at 50-week SMA, we expect it to be crossed. Traders can buy above $370 and keep a stop loss of $260. Please use only 30% of the usual position size for this trade: if the cryptocurrency struggles to breakout of $400, traders can quickly raise the stop loss to reduce the risk.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the price reverses direction from the overhead resistance and plummets below the 20-week EMA.
A new version Litecoin Core 0.17.1 was released which brings in new features, bug fixes, performance improvements and more. Will the bullishness in bitcoin rub off on litecoin? Let’s find out.
The LTC/USD pair has formed a cup and handle pattern, which will complete on a breakout and close above $91. This will have a minimum target objective of $158.91, but the momentum can carry it to $172.647 levels. The traders can buy on a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $91 and keep a stop loss of $65. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive zone, which suggests that the bulls are in command.
Still, please keep the position size only 50% of normal: let’s keep our risk under control.
Our bullish assumption will be negated if the price fails to breakout and sustain above $91 and drops below $65. In such a case, a fall to $40 and lower is possible.
Cybercriminals are finding new ways to exploit the vulnerability CVE-2019-3396 in Confluence, a widely used collaboration and planning software, according to a report by security intelligence firm Trend Micro Inc. Monero (XMR) is the fifth best performer of the past seven days. Can it improve its performance over the next few days? Let us find out.
The XMR/USD pair has been consolidating for the past five weeks, and has a stiff resistance at $81. The 50-week SMA is also located just above this level. Hence, we anticipate this zone to act as a stiff hurdle for the bulls.
But if the bulls breakout of the 50-week SMA, it will signal strength and can gradually move up to $120 and above it to $150. Conversely, if the bears sink the pair below $60, it can retest the lows at $38.5.
Traders can wait for the price to breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $81 to initiate long positions. The initial stop loss can be kept at $60, which can be trailed higher as the cryptocurrency moves northwards.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. Charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.
HitBTC Exchange Analytics: ATOM, DASH, MIOTA, BTC, BCH
While markets have looked bullish this week following a sharp surge May 3, traders need to watch out for a correction in the next few days. This pullback will shake out the weak hands and will differentiate between different digital currencies. While some will lose only a part of their recent gains, others will plunge towards their lows again.
The stronger ones are likely to lead the next bull market in cryptocurrencies. Therefore, traders should buy strength after the pullback ends. If our assumption is correct, the current fall should offer a great opportunity to buy for the long-term. Our view will be invalidated if cryptocurrencies give up all the gains made over the past few weeks.
A survey by financial consultancy firm DeVere Group shows that 68% of high-net-worth individuals across the globe will have invested in cryptocurrencies by the end of 2022. One of the major reasons for investing in cryptocurrency is their borderless nature, which makes the assets available across the globe.
Atom (ATOM), the native crypto asset of the Cosmos blockchain, made an impressive start as it made a place for itself among the top 15 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization within a very short span of time. Its price received a boost as it was listed on Binance, without even trying. However, while the initial response has been bullish, can the momentum continue in the best performing major cryptocurrency of the past week or is it time to take some chips off the table? Let’s take a look.
The ATOM/USD pair has a very short trading history; hence, we are using a daily time frame chart on it. The pair witnessed huge volatility on its listing day. From a high of $8.90 on April 22, it plunged to a low of $2.9277 on April 24. That was a drop of 67.10%. However, since then, the recovery has been sharp. The price has reached close to the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement of the recent fall. A rally above this resistance can push the price to $5.9139, which is the 50% retracement level.
The level between $5.9139 to $6.6186 will act as a stiff resistance. Any breakout of the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement can propel the digital currency to $8.90. However, if the price turns down from the current levels, it can drop to the next support of $3.60.
The recovery in market prices pushed the mining hashrate of Dash (DASH) to an all-time high of 3.2385 petahashes on April 19, bettering its previous record of 3.237 petahashes set in early November 2018. It has since then again improved on the record to 3.8957 petahashes on May 2.
In order to solve the issues faced by Dash merchants, Dash Retail has released a merchant transaction counter for its point-of-sale app and a conversion rates API to provide accurate conversion rates to fiat currencies.
The DASH/USD pair corrected to the breakout level of the range in the week before this past one. We like that the price has sustained above the 20-week EMA since breaking out of it. The bulls are currently attempting to resume the recovery. It will pick up momentum after it breaks out of the overhead resistance between $138.709 and the 50-week SMA. Above this zone, the pair can rally to $225.
On the other hand, if the digital currency reverses direction and plunges below $103.261, it will re-enter the range. This will weaken it and can result in a fall to the yearly low.
Car manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover will reward drivers by giving them MIOTA tokens for data reporting. These tokens can thereafter be redeemed for various products. The Austin Transportation department in the city of Austin, Texas has collaborated with Iota Foundation to work towards a more interoperable transportation ecosystem.
The MIOTA/USD pair has been range bound between $0.244553 and $0.385033 since the end of December last year. The bears attempted a breakdown of this support in the week before but failed. Buyers quickly pushed the price back in the range. However, the pair is facing resistance at the 20-week EMA. If the price can scale above this resistance, it will challenge the top of the range at $0.385033.
A breakout of the range is likely to start a new uptrend that can carry the price to the psychological resistance of $0.50. On the other hand, a breakdown below $0.244553 will sink it to lows. The longer the digital currency remains in the range, the stronger its eventual breakout will be.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices have risen sharply over the past seven days. Fundstrat analyst Robert Sluymer believes that this is the start of a new uptrend and investors should buy more on any pullback. He expects the price to zoom past $6,000 in the second half of the year.
It is interesting to note that bitcoin’s dominance has increased from about 50% to 55.5% in about a month. This shows that traders are currently favoring bitcoin over other altcoins. More and more people are now aware of Bitcoin and about 11% of the American population has already invested in it, according to a survey by Spencer Bogart of Blockchain Capital.
Grayscale Investments has started a “Drop Gold” campaign where it portrays BTC as an alternative to gold investments. With all these bullish noises, should one buy now or wait?
The BTC/USD pair has reached the stiff overhead resistance of $5,900. This is a critical level because the pair had repeatedly taken support close to it since February to early November, before breaking below it. Now on the way up, we expect a lot of supply to hit around these levels.
But the price has risen above both moving averages, which is a positive sign. If the bulls can continue the momentum and ascend $5,900, the digital currency can rally to $6,480.54. We do not expect the zone between $6,000 to $6,480.54 to be crossed in a hurry. A minor correction or a consolidation around these levels is likely.
On the downside, support is at $4,914.11. If this level breaks, it will dampen sentiment and can drag the price to the next support at $4,255. Traders who have missed out buying in this recovery can wait for dips to buy, instead of chasing the rally.
The next hard fork on bitcoin cash (BCH) is slated for May 15. Schnorr signatures, a scaling and privacy code change, will go live on the coin’s mainnet to improve the cryptocurrency’s privacy and scalability.
Since the surge in early April, the BCH/USD pair has largely been consolidating between $255 and $335.62. The attempt by the bears to plummet below this range in the last week found buyers at the 20-week EMA. Currently, the bulls are attempting to push the price towards the top of the range.
If the pair breaks out of the range and the minor resistance at $363.30, it can rally to the 50-week SMA and above it to $600. The digital currency has a history of vertical rallies; hence, it is likely to surprise to the upside.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the digital currency plunges below the support of the 20-week EMA. In such a case, a fall to $166.25 is probable.
Market data provided by HitBTC exchange. Charts for analysis provided by TradingView.
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